Study suggests humans are poised to get a lot older than anyone has previously imagined

A new study applying business analytics concludes that we haven’t even come close to reaching maximum lifespan.

Previous research has suggested the maximum lifespan may be 150 years. But a new study published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE finds evidence that human longevity records will be broken in the next 40 years.

In the study, scientists analyzed mortality data from hundreds of millions of people born between the 1700s up to 1969 in 19 countries. They assessed the data applying the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality – which hypothesizes that mortality rates in humans increase roughly exponentially with age after around age 50.

In an interview with Livescience, study co-author David McCarthy, an assistant professor of risk management and insurance at the University of Georgia, said the Gompertz model finds mortality rates increase exponentially beyond age 50 and then plateau at extremely old ages.

However, the mortality rate trends in people born between 1910 and 1950 were different than in those born earlier. This group reached the old age-related plateau at older ages than people born before the 1900s. Also, they didn't see sudden upticks in mortality at old ages to accompany decreases in mortality seen at younger ages.

McCarthy said this suggests we have not reached the maximum human life span.

"In most of the countries we examined, we project that the maximum age will rise dramatically in the future," he said. "This will lead to longevity records being broken in the next 40 years or so." 

The study’s model projects that the oldest Japanese woman born in 1919 or later has at least a 50% chance of reaching age 122 -- and the oldest Japanese woman born in 1940 or later has a 50% chance of surpassing age 130.

The oldest person whose age has been documented so far was Jeanne Calment, a French supercentenarian who lived 122 years and 164 days. She is the only person verified to have lived to the age of 120 and beyond.

McCarthy’s work suggests people will begin surpassing this milestone soon.

Obviously, mathematical models cannot account for things like pandemics – which single-handedly decreased U.S. life expectancy by 3.08 years at birth, 3.02 years at age 35, and 2.07 years at age 65. Nor does it factor in breakthroughs in longevity science that will cure now-untreatable diseases.

What it does is offer additional encouragement that dreams of living longer lives may soon become real.

Methuselah Foundation’s mission is to make 90 the new 50 by 2030.  To that end, we have supported countless research efforts to drive the development of medicines, therapies, and other advances that will encourage longer, healthier lives. If you want to help us reach our goal, join us.